The Dollar Forecast Is Bullish, Get On Board While You Can

September 20, 2022

FOMC Is Hawkish, No Cuts Are Approach

The FOMC cut rates by a quarter point this calendar week and that was expected. What was besides expected was an outlook for more cuts, possibly THREE more than cuts, and that is not what we got. Quite the paired in fact, supported on the individual opinions of the member of the committee both voting and non-voting the outlook for future cuts is nil. Within the committee five were in favour of no cuts this month and another basketball team in favor of no-more cuts this year which is enough to ensure that we North Korean won't. Get some more cuts, that is.

The Dollar Index reflects this view. The index retreat from its recent high over the past fortnight but found support to a higher place the short-term rolling average. The moving average is trending higher and the indicators are pointing to a trend-following get around in prices so I am optimistic a move to retest the recent highs is brewing. Because data in the European Economic Community, the UK, and Japan every last support expected alleviation from the ECB, the BOE, and the BOJ, a move to new highs is also expected.

The EUR/USD is likewise consolidating at the short-run moving average for a trend-following go around. The difference is this move is bearish and expected to the pair down to a new low. Stochastic is already showing a strong bearish ingress signal so a move to retest the current low is expected. If MAC confirms the move a break to new lows volition postdate soon after. Peradventure tandem with ECB easing operating theatre worldly data that supports ECB easing.

The GBP/USD looks like IT power follow in a optimistic reversion but I wear't think sol. What I see is an asset that might have reversed if not for shifty outlook and Brexit uncertainty. When information technology comes to the Brexit the only thing that is certain is doubt, the latest news is that the Supreme Court testament rule on Johnson's suspension of Fantan next week. Back to the indicate, the modern rally is extended and already showing signs of snapping back and well below the ground underground direct. The indicators are bullish but both are high in their ranges, show an overbought commercialise, and poised to evoke strong pessimistic signals. A go to retest the EMA is likely, a move below that will plausibly retest the recent down in the mouth.

The USD/JPY is an example of what makes specialised depth psychology so tricky. At boldness value, this chart is very similar to the GBP/USD but to me, the bias is bullish in favor the dollar. Spell the pair cadaver to a lower place some electric resistance targets information technology is to a higher place the key target for reversal. At the same time, the indicators are bullish but have cooled off somewhat allowing room for another push higher in prices. The pair may retest the EMA simply, if it does, IT will be an opportune entry orient for patient traders.